Management base case. Pre-revenue. Unaudited.
1 USD = 150 ETB. EIC tax holiday Years 1–3. DFI debt service conditional on BDC/EDC approval. No carbon revenue modeled. No grants in base case.
All projections on this page are management estimates only — not audited — and do not constitute a guarantee of future financial returns. The company is pre-revenue and pre-incorporation. No signed contracts or off-take agreements exist.
Phased verticals. Year 1 = Vertical A only.
Verticals B and C are zero in Year 1 and triggered only after the Phase 1 gate (≥90% lease collection sustained over a rolling 6-month window). No carbon-credit revenue is modeled in any year.
| Revenue Line (USD) | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vertical A — Solar Agri-Automation | 341K | 720K | 1.20M | 1.65M | 2.10M |
| Vertical B — Cold Storage (CSaaS) | — | 200K | 500K | 850K | 1.20M |
| Vertical C — Circular Bio-Tech | — | 180K | 480K | 800K | 1.10M |
| O&M / Service Contracts (embedded) | — | 80K | 180K | 300K | 440K |
| Total Gross Revenue | 341K | 1.18M | 2.36M | 3.60M | 4.84M |
From USD 341K to USD 4.84M — five-year modeled P&L
| Line Item (USD) | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Revenue | 341K | 1.18M | 2.36M | 3.60M | 4.84M |
| COGS (avg 43%) | (147K) | (507K) | (1.015M) | (1.548M) | (2.080M) |
| Gross Profit | 194K | 673K | 1.345M | 2.052M | 2.760M |
| OPEX — Ethiopia + Canada | (244K) | (553K) | (825K) | (1.000M) | (1.075M) |
| EBITDA | (50K) | 120K | 520K | 1.052M | 1.685M |
| DFI Debt Service (conditional) | — | (60K) | (180K) | (310K) | (420K) |
| Depreciation | (55K) | (110K) | (190K) | (280K) | (360K) |
| Ethiopia Corp Tax (Yr 1–3 holiday) | — | — | — | (231K) | (361K) |
| Net Profit (modeled) | (105K) | (50K) | 150K | 231K | 544K |
| Cumulative Net (modeled) | (105K) | (155K) | (5K) | 226K | 770K |
Source: ESC-IPM-2026-003 management base case. ~43% COGS, no grants counted, EIC tax holiday applied Years 1–3. No carbon revenue. No independent CPA review has been conducted on these projections.
FX stress + BDC failed + no CBMA = IRR 10–12% (below 18% hurdle)
Under a compound adverse scenario combining (i) sustained ETB depreciation against USD, (ii) failure to secure BDC Climate Tech concessional debt, and (iii) loss of CBMA training-grant support, base-case IRR compresses to 10–12% — materially below the 18% institutional hurdle. This scenario must be disclosed to all prospective investors and is a binding component of the institutional risk-disclosure framework.
Sustained ETB/USD depreciation
No concessional climate debt secured
Grant-funded training framework lost
Modeled break-even ~Month 24. Highly conditional.
Vertical A cooperative deployments live. Funded by founder capital.
Target monthly net positive. Highly conditional on lease collection rate ≥90%.
Year 1 USD 341K revenue / negative EBITDA absorbed by founder capital.
Base case only. Conditional on all 11 IPM preconditions being met.
Vertical B/C only triggered if ≥90% lease collection sustained over rolling 6 months.
USD 4.84M revenue, USD 1.685M EBITDA. Management estimates only — not a valuation.